Six Major U.S. Banks Kick Off Q3 Earnings Season

As the third-quarter earnings season for U.S. stocks kicks off, the six major banks — JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America — will report their results one after another, becoming the first to face market scrutiny.

Currently, U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, and banks' earnings performance has diverged. Higher rates are boosting returns on some loan assets, but deposit and funding costs are also under pressure; meanwhile, stock market volatility, corporate M&A and financing activity are bringing new revenue opportunities to Wall Street investment banks.

For the upcoming third-quarter earnings, the market is focused not only on whether revenue and earnings per share can beat expectations, but more importantly on whether banks can sustain growth in their trading businesses, whether net interest income improves, and whether credit risks are rising further in a high-rate environment.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)

According to Tiger Trade data, JPMorgan's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $53.47 billion, up 8.74% year-over-year, with EPS of $6.21, up 13.98% year-over-year.

Business Drivers

JPMorgan's Q3 earnings growth is powered by three core engines.

On investment banking, management expects IB fees to grow mid-to-high teens year-over-year, reflecting active M&A deal flow and a recovering equity underwriting marketYahoo.

On markets, both fixed income and equities trading are performing strongly, with markets revenue expected to grow at a pace comparable to investment bankingYahoo.

Net interest income (NII) is the standout growth driver this quarter, expected to increase over 25% year-over-year, propelled by improved loan yields in a "higher for longer" rate environmentYahoo.

Morgan Stanley (MS)

According to Tiger Trade data, Morgan Stanley's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $19.99 billion, up 19.70% year-over-year, with EPS of $2.917, up 38.71% year-over-year.

Business Drivers

Morgan Stanley's Q3 performance narrative revolves around two main threads. First is investment banking recovery — strengthening M&A and equity capital markets activity is providing incremental revenue. After the 2022–2024 deal trough, the M&A rebound is delivering significant revenue elasticity to Morgan Stanley's Institutional Securities division.

Second is steady wealth management performance — as Morgan Stanley's largest revenue source, wealth management performance is closely tied to market asset levels and client asset inflows. With markets maintaining relatively elevated levels, asset-based fee income is expected to sustain growthFutunn.

Morgan Stanley's business mix makes it more sensitive to capital market cycles than traditional commercial banks, but the stabilizing effect of wealth management partially smooths cyclical volatility. The Q3 market environment is broadly supportive of its core business lines: equity markets at elevated levels sustain AUM, the rate environment supports spread income on cash products, and the M&A recovery directly drives advisory fee growth.

Goldman Sachs (GS)

According to Tiger Trade data, Goldman Sachs' third-quarter revenue is expected to be $16.74 billion, up 18.73% year-over-year, with EPS of $13.025, up 18.43% year-over-year.

Business Drivers

Despite wide data dispersion, Goldman Sachs' Q3 business outlook is broadly constructive. Jefferies' recently reported record advisory and equity underwriting revenues indicate that the Wall Street fee pool remained healthy in Q3benzinga.com. This peer performance provides a strong reference point for Goldman's Global Banking and Markets franchise. Goldman's market share in M&A advisory has long ranked among the top, and the M&A recovery should directly drive advisory revenue growth.

On equity underwriting, the gradual IPO market recovery and increased follow-on financing activity provide tailwinds for Goldman's traditional strength. However, a caution flag is warranted: strong Q2 trading performance may lead to sequential normalization in Q3, which is the core logic behind Morgan Stanley's downward EPS revision for Goldmantoutiao.com. Overall, Goldman's Q3 investment banking outlook is clearly positive, but trading revenue's quarterly volatility makes the final EPS landing point difficult to pin down.

Citigroup (C)

According to Tiger Trade data, Citigroup's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $23.72 billion, up 12.48% year-over-year, with EPS of $2.659, up 39.94% year-over-year.

Business Drivers

Citigroup's Q3 performance is driven by dual growth in markets and investment banking. Markets revenue is expected to deliver mid-single-digit year-over-year growth, supported by solid fixed-income trading and FX performancecitigroup.com. Investment banking revenue is expected to grow low-single-digit, reflecting the gradual recovery in global M&A activity and debt underwritingcitigroup.com.

Citigroup is currently executing a large-scale restructuring under CEO Jane Fraser, involving organizational streamlining, non-core business divestitures, and operational efficiency gains. For investors, cost discipline and restructuring progress are the most closely watched focal points in Q3 results. The 19% earnings growth significantly outpaces the 7.5% revenue growth — this gap is a direct manifestation of restructuring-driven operating leverage: modest revenue growth combined with cost compression is pushing profits higher at a faster pace. If Q3 results further demonstrate restructuring milestone achievements and cost savings progress, it would provide important validation for Citigroup's medium-term investment thesis.

Wells Fargo (WFC)

According to Tiger Trade data, Wells Fargo's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $22.32 billion, up 5.5% year-over-year, with EPS of $1.854, up 19.98% year-over-year.

Business Drivers

Wells Fargo's Q3 improvement narrative centers on two themes. First, net interest margin (NIM) is beating expectations. Management has explicitly stated that Q3 NIM is running above prior guidanceYahoo, signaling that core lending spread income is better than market estimates — a positive for both revenue and profit. In a "higher for longer" rate environment, Wells Fargo's massive deposit base (the largest in the U.S.) gives it particularly pronounced NII elasticity.

Second, the investment banking rebuild is gaining traction. After years of asset-cap restrictions and business restructuring, Wells Fargo's IB momentum has clearly improvedYahoo. Morgan Stanley recently upgraded Wells Fargo stock, citing a clear NIM recovery trajectory and further upside in fee incomeYahoo. This upgrade provides incremental confidence for market expectations of Wells Fargo's Q3 IB performance. Yahoo Finance's earnings preview also highlights Wells Fargo's progress on NIM improvement and IB rebuildingYahoo.

Bank of America (BAC)

According to Tiger Trade data, Bank of America's third-quarter revenue is expected to be $30.69 billion, up 11.58% year-over-year, with EPS of $1.109, up 16.53% year-over-year.

Business Drivers

Bank of America faces the greatest capital markets headwinds among the Big Six in Q3. Management expects investment banking fees between 1.6B and 1.8B, below the 2.0B reported a year earlierel-fondo.com, implying a 10%–20% year-over-year decline in IB revenue. Sales and trading revenue is expected to be roughly flat year-over-yearel-fondo.com, lacking meaningful growth momentum.

Wealth management fees provide some offset. As one of the institutions with the broadest retail banking networks in the U.S., Bank of America has a large client base and AUM in wealth management. Asset-based fee income is expected to sustain growth, but this increment is unlikely to fully compensate for the IB revenue shortfall. On operating leverage, if operating expenses remain elevated, Bank of America's Q3 earnings growth will be materially constrainedel-fondo.com. Overall, Bank of America's Q3 performance profile reads as "large revenue scale but sluggish growth," with near-term capital markets headwinds being the core reason for its underperformance versus peers.

U.S. Banking Sector Outlook and Risk Factors

The U.S. banking sector enters Q3 2026 earnings season amid an interplay of three supportive forces and four risk factors.

Supportive forces: First, capital markets recovery is the most significant sector-level tailwind — the rebound in M&A, equity underwriting, and debt underwriting is providing incremental IB revenue, as validated by Jefferies' record quarterly performancebenzinga.com.

Second, NII remains resilient in a "higher for longer" rate environment, with elevated rates sustaining loan yields and benefiting commercial banks with large deposit bases (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America)Yahoo.

Third, credit costs have broadly stabilized — after prior provisioning cycles, loan loss reserves are entering a flat-to-declining phase, with JPMorgan's expected 16% year-over-year provision decline serving as a textbook exampleYahoo.

Risk factors: First, uneven revenue growth across banks — the clear divergence in Big Six Q3 performance demonstrates that the sector recovery is not broad-based; JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup show stronger capital markets momentum, while Bank of America faces IB fee pressureel-fondo.com.

Second, trading normalization pressure — Q2 trading was broadly strong, and Q3 may see sequential pullback; Goldman Sachs' wide consensus dispersion partly stems from this uncertaintytoutiao.com.

Third, interest rate sensitivity — if yields rise further, unrealized losses on banks' securities portfolios could re-emerge as a tail risk.

Fourth, private credit stress has eased but not fully dissipated, with weaker borrowers still facing refinancing pressure that could weigh on some banks' credit quality.

Overall, the Big Six's Q3 2026 fundamentals lean constructive. The sector is in a window supported by both capital markets recovery and rate resilience, but earnings divergence is the defining characteristic of this cycle — banks with strong IB platforms (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs) or releasing restructuring dividends (Citigroup) will outperform peers, while those with capital markets headwinds (Bank of America) or in transitional phases will lag.

As investors interpret Q3 results, the key focus should be on each bank's Q4 and full-year guidance revisions, which will determine how the market reprices 2027 bank earnings expectations.